Methodology
Every indicator on this platform is derived from the CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders report. Three independent dimensions — Bias, Pressure, Conviction — are computed each week and combined into a Signal score, a quality Grade and a Pattern label. Nothing is hidden.
FX + Crypto
CFTC Disaggregated Financial Futures
File: f_all_YYYY.xls — released weekly at cftc.gov. Contains 4 operator categories: Asset Managers, Leveraged Funds, Dealer/Intermediary, Other Reportables, Non-Reportable.
Commodities
CFTC Disaggregated Commodity Futures
File: c_disagg_xls_YYYY.zip — same release. Contains: Producer/Merchant/Processor, Swap Dealers, Managed Money, Other Reportables, Non-Reportable.
Data lag: CFTC reports positioning as of Tuesday each week and publishes on Friday (~16:00 ET). Inherent 3-day lag.
Where institutions are positioned and how extreme — relative to their own 3-year history.
BIAS = clamp( 0.6 × bias_pct + 0.4 × (z_bias / 2.5 × 100), −100, +100 )net_pctsmart_net / OI — smart money net position as fraction of open interestbias_pct(percentile_rank_156w − 50) × 2 → maps 0–100th percentile to −100..+100z_biasclamp( (net_pct − mean_156w) / std_156w, −2.5, +2.5 ) → z-score within same windowblend60% percentile rank + 40% z-score → dominant trend + extremity signal·Smart money = Asset Managers for FX / Crypto, Managed Money for Commodities
·Rolling window: 156 weeks (≈ 3 years). Minimum 2 data points for a valid z-score
·OI floor at 1 to prevent division by zero
How fast positioning is flowing — direction and acceleration of institutional flows week-over-week.
PRESSURE = clamp( (0.75 × pressure_z + 0.25 × accel_z) / 2.5 × 100, −100, +100 )flow_t(smart_net_t − smart_net_{t−1}) / OI_t → OI-normalised weekly flow changeflow_emaEMA(flow, span=4, adjust=False) → smoothed 4-week flow signalpressure_zclamp( flow_ema / rolling_std(flow, 26w), −2.5, +2.5 )accelflow_ema_t − flow_ema_{t−1} → rate of change of momentumaccel_zclamp( accel / rolling_std(accel, 26w), −2.5, +2.5 )·Positive = institutions adding longs or covering shorts. Negative = adding shorts or liquidating longs
·EMA span=4 filters noise while capturing regime shifts within 4–6 weeks
·Rolling std window: 26 weeks. Min periods: 2
How much to trust the signal — four independent measures of signal reliability combined into one score.
CONVICTION = clamp( 0.35×align + 0.25×op_agree + 0.20×persistence + 0.20×participation, 0, 100 )align (35%)√(|BIAS| × |PRESSURE|) if same sign, else 0. Geometric mean: penalises disagreement non-linearlyop_agree (25%)Pearson corr(smart_net, secondary_net, 13W) → mapped [−1,+1] to [0,100]. Requires ≥13 weeks and std > 0persistence (20%)R² of linear regression of net_pct over last 8 weeks × 100. Measures trend cleanlinessparticipation (20%)breadth_pct × (1 − conc_pct/100). Breadth = trader-count percentile vs 156w; concentration = |net| / dominant_exposure·Secondary operator: Leveraged Funds (FX), Other Reportables (Commodity)
·op_agree defaults to 50 (neutral) if fewer than 13 weeks of data
·persistence defaults to 0 if fewer than 2 weekly data points
Signal = ((BIAS + PRESSURE) / 2) × (CONVICTION / 100)The headline directional score. Combines the directional average of Bias and Pressure, scaled down by Conviction. High absolute value = strong, reliable signal.
|Signal| ≥ 60 → A+ | ≥ 45 → A | ≥ 30 → B | ≥ 15 → C | < 15 → DSetup quality from |Signal|. Capped at C if fewer than 26 weeks of history. Only A+ and A setups appear in Trade Ideas.
Derived from |BIAS|, sign alignment of BIAS/PRESSURE, and Pressure accelerationAuto-detected positioning state describing the current institutional regime.
Six states automatically detected from the relationship between Bias, Pressure and their magnitudes.
The CFTC Disaggregated report separates futures participants into five reporting categories. Understanding who is who is critical to interpreting the signals correctly.
Large institutions: pension funds, asset managers, sovereign wealth funds. Long horizon, fundamentals-driven. Their net positioning is the primary signal for FX.
Hedge funds, CTAs trading commodity futures. The equivalent of Asset Managers in the commodity space. Primary signal for metals, energy, grains, softs.
Hedge funds and CTAs in FX. More reactive and momentum-driven. Used as secondary operator for FX conviction.
OTC swap dealers hedging client exposures. Often contrarian to directional trend.
Physical commodity producers (oil companies, mines, farms). Hedge future production — structurally short.
Positions below CFTC reporting threshold. Proxy for retail sentiment — often used as contrarian indicator.
Grade is capped at C for assets with fewer than 26 weeks of history. A+/A grades are rare by design — they mark statistically exceptional institutional alignment.
3-day reporting lag
CFTC data reflects positioning as of Tuesday. The report is published on Friday. By the time you read the data, the market has moved 3 days further.
Not a timing tool
COT data identifies positioning bias and flow direction — not entry timing. High-grade setups can take weeks to play out or fail outright.
Futures ≠ spot
The data covers futures contracts. Spot FX and commodity markets can diverge, particularly around roll dates and option expirations.
No predictive guarantee
Historical extremes revert on average — but not always and not on a fixed schedule. This is a probabilistic edge, not a certainty.
Every number in the dashboard traces directly back to this methodology. Open the terminal to explore all 23 assets.